Reinforcements are the theme of the day.
There are many historical stories which make it apparent just how important the ability to pull from a plethora of reinforcements is.
Amongst the nastiest is the “Great Siberian Ice March”.
In the midst of the Russian Civil War, fought primarily between rival Red and White factions, was a sliding doors moment which basically emboldened one side to power, whilst the other was relegated to a 2000km trek across East Central Siberia in the winter of 1919/20.
As most know, battling in Russia requires engagement across many fronts, not least fighting Mother Nature herself. Engaged in battle along the Tobol and Ishim rivers, the Whites were outgunned by a Red Army that enjoyed the fruits of reinforcements, a care package of soldiers redirected north after securing victory on the eastern front. With their numerical advantage, they were able to push the whites eastward into a full retreat after losses in Omsk and Novosibirsk.
What followed was a protracted march characterised by permafrost, insurgents, bandits and a fracture to central supply chains. Many men froze to death, with their bodies in purgatory, before being flushed 5000ft under Lake Baikal as the lake thawed with the arrival of summer.
Whilst Rangers will not literally be asked to traverse Siberia should they continue to embarrass fans, the cold Glasgow winters will be made much worse should empty stadiums become the norm. To fight against this, reinforcements in the form of arriving players have been procured, four since the publication of my first review, which you can read below.
Rome wasn’t built in a day, but they were laying bricks every hour
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Unsurprisingly, both Youssef Chermiti and Jayden Meghoma lack the minutes in their legs to warrant any serious discussion, and like Mikey Moore previously, will be omitted.
Despite this, let’s take some time to appraise our two newest recruits.
Bojan Miovski
Joining From: Girona (La Liga)
Reported Fee: £4-5m
ETV (Estimated Transfer Value): £1.5-2.2m
Age: 26.3 Years Old
Position: CF
“Bojan is a player we’ve tracked closely, and we’re thrilled to have secured his signature.
"He’s proven himself as a consistent goal scorer and brings a level of quality that aligns perfectly with our ambitions.
“The knowledge he already has of the Scottish Premiership is a huge advantage, and I look forward to seeing what he can achieve here at Rangers.”
Sporting Director, Kevin Thelwell
The Bigger Picture
Miovski is 26.3 years old, and according to Rahul’s graphic detailed in the article linked earlier, his “football age” is 26.1, so he has played almost exactly the average amount of senior men’s football that you would expect.
Reading Caley’s curves, detailed in the article linked earlier, you can expect a striker to enjoy a looser interpretation of their “peak” between the ages of 23 and 28.1, with their absolute “peak” occurring between the ages of 25 and 26. If we want to break it down even further and cherry-pick highly relevant actions, please refer to the list produced when analysing wingers in my original post, as that covers all the essentials.
Miovski has arrived at the apex of his peak and should remain in his prime for all but his final season; he will be 30 when that expires. Miovski should play out the entirety of his contract at a level similar to the one he maintained when he was signed.
From a player trading perspective, Miovski has minimal player trading potential. He arrives off the back of a very unsuccessful stint in La Liga, and as mentioned earlier, is not someone who has heaps of runway in front of him to develop. Barring a mega first season, I struggle to see a universe in which he “ignites” the club’s player trading model.
At Rangers, Miovski will be afforded the luxury of guaranteed winning football for the first time in his career. Before Rangers, he had played for a series of sides that are at best mid-table and at worst, relegation candidates. We will dive into these stints and the clubs in greater detail later.
Before that, we will take a look at his career with a broader lens.
When leaning on data so specifically, it is crucial that before we try to analyse Miovski on his own merit, we deduce what sort of sides he played in. We will start broadly here and go deeper later.
This is pivotal, as a player’s numerical output often reveals more about the system in which he plays and the function he is expected to deliver than his actual abilities. Proficient recruitment teams and managers provide alignment, but this is not always the case. Below is a ternary which plots each of his previous clubs in-possession style, balancing between my attempt to capture “controlled play”, “quick play” and “direct play”. We see a clear fracture within his previous sides. Aberdeen were explicitly direct in their play, Girona was controlling, likely overly so, and MTK sat in the middle, with little discernible identity.
Despite the variation in style, Miovski’s own role remained relatively similar, albeit with slight variation. As evidenced by the ternary below, we can see that amongst the different seasons, he has generally leaned into being a target-man or pressing-forward, suggesting a general proficiency in duels out of possession and in the air, and a lack of comfort dribbling or creating for others.
Pivoting from styles to substance, let’s take a look at Miovski’s seasonal xGC p90 returns, which combine the quality of shots he takes and those he assists on a per ninety basis. Here we can see that it’s relatively stable, with the single outlier being his final season in Macedonia, which was a small sample size of around ~500 mins. In seasons where he has played substantial minutes, 21-22 onwards, he hovers around the 0.30s p90, which is, as expected, far lower than any Rangers player.
To level the playing field, let’s introduce Miovski’s shares of those two metrics, allowing for a more accurate, albeit far from perfect, picture of his value to his side in and around the penalty box. The Girona season sticks out like a sore thumb and is amongst the worst seasons for any of the players in the sample size. In Scotland and Hungary, it’s more positive, where he accounts for at least 25% of non-penalty xG and between 5-7.5% of xA.
The numbers are interesting, but some more context is likely needed. Are those figures better than what our CFs have managed?
No, Miovski produced even on a relative basis considerably less xG% than both Dessers and Danilo, and a lower xA% than Igamane and Danilo. His xG% is slightly higher than Igamane’s, and his xA% % is similar to Dessers. The critic could frame this as, on a relative basis, he’s as dangerous as our least dangerous and as creative as our least creative; however, even the added context of % shares does not fully account for the difference in team quality.
Moving on, we can capture a rough approximation of his finishing returns in his career thus far. Although not the perfect proxy, we can see that Miovski, like most strikers, is streaky and regularly trades periods of underperformance and overperformance. This is not the worst trendline I've seen, but it's also not the best. We shouldn't see anything too different from what we've seen in previous seasons.
Continuing with the theme of NPxG Under/Overperformance, the graphic below provides a rough snapshot of where the Macedonian does his best and worst work. I, in fairness, have not produced the graphic before, so I am not sure how normal or not this distribution is, but I imagine it’s pretty standard. Massive overperformance on the punts, which is logical given just how low the respective shot xG value is, with slightly middling, below-to-average returns elsewhere.
If we wrap up what we’ve seen so far, and take a final general look before we dive into the depths of specific seasons, we can plot his “complete forward” rating for all seasons that satisfy the criteria. Although we’ve already established that he is more of a target-man, the complete forward rating does a better job at capturing a holistic picture of his play and will be the sort of “role” he will be asked to play at Rangers.
What shouldn’t be surprising is that his best work came during his two seasons at Aberdeen, with his time elsewhere largely unremarkable and somewhat concerning. Massive props must be paid to the club’s live/video scouts for picking him out of Hungary.
The Whistle-stop Tour
MTK Budapest (2021/22)
Miovski’s first move outside of his homeland was to the Hungarian capital, featuring for relative minnows MTK Budapest. In his sole season, he played in a side that was ultimately relegated, giving us a fairly reasonable baseline assumption that they were pretty bad.
Given that we cannot access historical ELO data, we can use MTK’s Expected Points haul as a good proxy for team quality. MTK managed 1.1 xPoints per game, which is a similar return to the following teams from last season (24/25).
Ross County
VFL Bochum
Hellas Verona
Stoke City
Beyond just broad quality benchmarks, we can, beyond the general flavour provided by the ternary, investigate what type of side 2021/22 MTK were.
Below are the percentile performance bars from that season, filtered against a large sample size of teams in similar historical seasons. Their relegation was not a false position, but they did likely play “better” football than most relegated sides do. We can see that they were strong in counter-attacking situations, deferred to through-balls and wing play often and played with a generally high tempo. Defensively, they were a bit of a mess, failing in most duels, but were somewhat aggressive and did force their opponents into long passing chains before shots.
When viewing this through a Mivoski-focused lens, there isn't really much we can take beyond the fact that they were bad. There is evidence to suggest that their low reliance on crosses and high dependence on isolation attacks may disadvantage a traditional target-man, and that their proclivity to take long shots also disadvantages a CF who is more likely to be ahead of the shooter than be the shooter themselves. But this is not a team whose game model is highly specified either to benefit or negate Miovski's talent.
Before we assess Miovski's own performances, it is worth approximating how involved he was in play, on a relative basis. Below is the usage rate for last season's Rangers CFs and Miovski from his lone season at MTK.
What we can see is that he was highly involved in their play, likely due to the fact that he was forced to drop deeper and roam wider than the more traditional penalty-box no.9s we have, Igamane aside, whose data is slightly skewed given minutes as a winger.
Danilo (24/25) - 8.03
Dessers (24/25) - 8.23
Miovski (21/22) - 11.91
Igamane (24/25) - 12.36
What we can take from 21/22 Miovski is that he was a hardworking CF who was strong in the air, regularly asked to hold the ball up, and was not given the opportunity to score many goals, but did not help himself in this regard. The latter fact is made all the more obvious when we compare him to MTK’s rotation no.9, Márkó Futács.
Miovski played far more minutes than the Hungarian, who was more of a super-sub, which is the ideal role for “stat-padding”. Despite the competitive advantage of facing tired legs and a more defined game-state, often more attacking than earlier in the game due to chasing a lead, Futács embarrasses the Macedonian. It’s really chalk and cheese when it comes to goalscoring, more of it and more efficient at doing so, and is also far more creative. Miovski, much like when compared to the larger sample, is more active OOP and slightly more robust in the air.
When we break down the sample to be even smaller and more fruitful, isolating only for CFs with the requisite minutes in sides who were relegated from the league, Miovski fares better, but barely. We have another data point suggesting that he’s decent in the air, active out of possession and average between the posts, but falls flat elsewhere. Still, for a sample size filled with players in failing teams, you would be forgiven for expecting more from a player who has obviously gone on to better things than all but one of his relegated peers - Barnabás Varga.
Rangers are not signing the version of Miovski that played in Hungary, but his tenure there is still valuable; more data points the better. He was no doubt hamstrung by a style that offered him few favours, but it’s hard to say he was anything but average if not slightly worse, not the best reading.
Aberdeen (2022/23 and 2023/24)
For most people, Aberdeen is a marked downgrade from Budapest, but Miovski might be the sole human in the universe to disagree.
Aberdeen has given the CF his best moments to date, and the sole platform where he was able to put together a cohesive body of work across multiple seasons. However, I think many believe this to be better than what it was, as discussed later.
Unlike any other player or team featured thus far on Statskala, Miovski’s Aberdeen side is the only side with which every reader should be familiar. That should help fill in the cracks of this analysis, and maybe prompt some further discussion/questions. We will all have a rough idea of that side’s quality, but what does xPoints say?
The 22/23 side managed 1.1 xPoints per game, achieving the same feat as MTK and the clubs listed earlier. Meanwhile, the 23/24 side managed a greater haul of 1.39 xPoints per 90, making them peers with the following clubs.
Milwall
Forest
Sevilla
Samsunspor
An obvious point to make is that the xPoints totals are a misnomer, given that the 23/24 side did not make the top-6 and faced a softer split, whereas the side with a smaller xPoints haul finished in 3rd. As we will find later, both teams were in somewhat false positions, and suggesting that despite the variance in xPoints and actual points, the two sides are of comparable quality seems fair.
In terms of style, the shape of their radars is similar. Both, as evidenced earlier with the in-possession style ternary, play direct football, rely heavily on width and wide players and are tackle-happy out of possession. The key difference being that the more recent side appears to have been “better”, even if this did not manifest in their position come the end of the season. Unlike with MTK, we can say with some certainty that the directness of said football, as well as the prominence of crossing, especially under Goodwin, does play to Miovski’s strengths and likely provides a good platform for him to succeed.
Taking a look at his shotmap can also provide us insight into the role and system that he played in, where you shoot is as much about you as it is the machine you work within. Penalties will quickly become the dominant theme of his Aberdeen tenure, accounting for a sizeable portion of goal returns (>1/3); someone has to score them, though. Besides that, we see that most of his shots are from inside the box and of relatively high quality. He scored only 1 goal beyond the D, indicating what we all likely know, that he is a penalty-box striker. Leave him there, and he will likely do his best work.
If we refer back to the complete forward player rating trendline, Miovski’s 22/23 season was his best, and we can see with some confidence that it was this season that provided the bulk of evidence to convince those in-house to sign the striker. Before we dive too far in, his usage rating is below:
Danilo (24/25) - 8.03
Dessers (24/25) - 8.23
Miovski (22/23) - 10.28
Igamane (24/25) - 12.36
The percentile bars below do a good job at capturing what Miovski did that season, and when read alongside the earlier style radar, can help us bridge the gap between what he actually excels in and the potential spillover that the system/role tries to create for its players.
Miovski was an above-average SPFL Premiership striker; there is no doubt about that, but I wouldn’t blame you for being a bit underwhelmed. There is a lot of good stuff. He was clinical in front of the goal, basically always hit the target, took high-quality shots, was capable of creating for others, was a good hold-up outlet who got the ball to stick and was not overrun in the air. But he was also nothing special in terms of goalscoring when you removed his penalties. It’s fair to say that he was sort of a penalty-merchant that season, or at least, spot-kicks pushed his goal returns from meh to somewhat eye-catching. This was foreshadowed by the % scatter earlier, where even on relative terms, his non-penalty scoring threat was significantly lower than the average Rangers CF. Something we should accept as fact and will support later is that he can’t really dribble, or at least struggles to be much of an isolation 1v1 threat. That’s fine, as ideally, he shouldn’t be asked to do that; however, it does reduce his versatility and value against low blocks, where such skills are particularly valuable.
As done earlier, if we streamline the sample to be more bespoke, we can get an accurate picture of Miovski’s value in the 2022/23 season compared to other Aberdeen, Hibs, and Hearts CFs since 2018/19.
If you read the graphic below using the strictest interpretation, let’s say in an old-school manner, for what you want your CF to do, then it looks good. Strong finisher, good in the air, gets into the correct positions more than others, can create and is not a terrible link-man. That is promising, although the lack of dribbling skill persists. I guess some hesitation is born out of the fact that we are not really looking for a 60th percentile, best of the rest CF, which it looks like, albeit without certainty, Miovski was.
Moving to his second and final season at Aberdeen, performances were similar; the earlier rating trendline suggests a slight step back, but he remained around the 60th-70th percentile. What did change significantly was his usage rating, dropping from a near career high to a career low.
Miovski (23/24) - 7.64
Danilo (24/25) - 8.03
Dessers (24/25) - 8.23
Igamane (24/25) - 12.36
Again, we are confronted with a player who is an average goalscorer, but now a below-average finisher, but makes up for it by shooting more and creating more for others. He remains a target man, who is targeted early in the build-up with long balls and plays the ball backwards more often than forwards. He’s good in the air without being great, and is unremarkable out of possession. As presented earlier, his xG% and xA% are almost identical to the previous season.
If we return to the best of the rest filter, it’s not really looking very promising. His scoring threat improves and now sits amongst the best in the sample, but everything else is either just around average or well below. Again, a traditional reading can help us paper over the cracks, since all we really need him to do is score goals, but the rest of the game requires a bit of work, and he is not exactly a young pup.
We can compare the two seasons directly with the radar below. The conclusions are much the same. In his first season, he was a better finisher, taking higher-quality shots and marginally more involved out of possession. In contrast, his final season saw a player more capable of creating chances and setting up others, but he took a fairly substantial step back in terms of finishing. You can say with absolute certainty that whichever version emerges at Ibrox, his data will be better. Still, if I were pushed, I’d prefer the latter, finishing struggles aside, the overall output is slightly better and seems like a safer bet to transition well from playing a near league low passes p90 to what is likely to be closer to a near league high passes p90, it’s much like Dessers 23/24 vs Dessers 24/25
We’ve compared Miovski to Miovski. The natural next question is, how did he compare to the man who took his place?
Nisbet is a slightly less versatile target-man/poacher, but he scored a lot more from open play than Miovski. I am not for one second suggesting that we should have signed Nibset, but it’s not even really close in terms of non-penalty production when compared to either version of Miovski.
For a player whose “brand” is to be the guy who knows how to score in our league, I’m not sure how convincing a sell that is. This obviously doesnt mean he can’t be that guy, though.
Girona (2024/25)
Miovski joins us following a fairly disappointing season at Girona; however, his own struggles largely reflected the club's performance as a whole. They started the season as UCL competitors but quickly slumped into near relegation form. They even finished the season as a comparably related side to Rangers, according to ELO, as seen in the plot below, quite remarkable given our own struggles.
Returning to xPoints as a benchmark, Girona were a lower mid-table side who were slightly “better” than their position would suggest. Their return of roughly 1.25 p90 places them with the company of the teams below.
Dundee Utd
Everton
Portsmouth
Groningen
Rangers under Martin thus far have been accused, rightfully so, of being many things: slow, turgid, uninspired, pedestrian, etc. Whatever you think of the current football, somehow things were even slower and tedious for Miovski at Girona, as supported by the performance percentiles below. No team in the entire sample played more passes per shot, and only a handful converted box touches into shots less often. They were bullied out of possession but maintained a decent level of control with the ball at their feet, which did result in them sitting in footballing purgatory, a horseshoe shape matched up against a low-block. What I am trying to convey is that, no matter how bad it can realistically get, Miovski saw worse last year.
Given what I’ve just said, it should not be surprising to see such a sparse set of percentiles, below. Yes, Miovski played in a terrible side, but he didn’t really help himself, and was somehow so uninvolved in play that despite his team being in the 88th percentile for passes p90, he was in the 7th for the same statistic.
Given this, the usage rating comparison below should not come as a surprise.
Miovski (24/25) - 7.56
Danilo (24/25) - 8.03
Dessers (24/25) - 8.23
Igamane (24/25) - 12.36
I think the genuine concern is not that he was bad in a pretty bad side in an excellent league, but that his strike partners were actually quite good. Stuani, who is a bona fide La Liga bagsman, is a high bar to compare to, but at 38 years old, you would hope that Mivoski could compete with him, but he fell well short of matching the Uruguayan, as evidenced by the radar below.
I think the most forgiving fan will forget Mivoski’s year in Spain and rightfully point to the competitive and underlying dynamics rendering this stint basically irrelevant to how he will perform in Glasgow. And that is somewhat fair, obviously, we should value his time in Scotland more than anything else, but he was just so poor in Spain that it’s hard to erase in good conscience. I believe the most consequential factor is not that this year rids him of any hope of performing well for us, but it drastically reduces buyer confidence across the top-5 leagues.
Putting It Together
I can keep this short.
Could we have done better? Easily.
Could we have done worse? Probably so.
Derek Cornelius
Joining From: Marseille (Ligue 1)
Reported Fee: n/a
ETV (Estimated Transfer Value): £3.5-5m
Age: 27.8 Years Old
Position: LB/LCB
“Derek is a player we have tracked during his time in Ligue 1 and we feel his defensive and leadership abilities will enhance what we already have in the building.
Being capped 35 times for your nation is no mean feat and we feel that experience at both international, as well as club level, will only help the group continue to grow.”
Sporting Director, Kevin Thelwell
The Bigger Picture
Cornelius is 27.8 years old, and according to Rahul’s graphic detailed in the article linked earlier, his “football age” is 26.9, so he has played almost exactly a season fewer of senior men’s football than you would expect.
Reading Caley’s curves, detailed in the article linked earlier, you can expect a CB to enjoy a looser interpretation of their “peak” between the ages of 22.5 and 30.1, with their absolute “peak” occurring at the age of 26. If we want to break it down even further and cherry-pick highly relevant actions, please refer to the list produced when analysing Djiga in my original post, as that covers all the essentials.
Cornelius has arrived just after the apex of his peak and should remain in his prime for at least the following two seasons; he will be 28.8 when his loan expires. Cornelius should play out the entirety of his contract at a level similar to the one he maintained when he was signed, projecting his value thereafter, and deciding whether or not to make the deal permanent will be a complex task for later.
From a player trading perspective, Cornelius has minimal player trading potential. He arrives following a mediocre season in Ligue 1, and, as mentioned earlier, he is not someone who has plenty of runway in front of him to develop. Barring a mega first season, I struggle to see a universe in which he “ignites” the club’s player trading model.
Cornelius has just played 3 seasons for clubs that should be in and around the top of the table, with his previous employers, Malmö, experiencing a similar pressure to win, albeit in a far less toxic ecosystem. He should be well-versed in handling severe pressure, given his time in Marseille. We will dive into these stints and the clubs in greater detail later.
Before that, we will take a look at his career with a broader lens.
As already established, getting an overhead into what style of club Cornelius has played for is pivotal for getting anything out of the data we have at hand. When we look at how Cornelius’s former employers have approached in-possession play, it largely aligns with the system that he will slot into at Rangers. His tenure at both Malmö and Marseille is particularly relevant given their overt focus on control and possession, which bleeds into his own duties as elaborated later.
Out of possession, he has yet to play in a side that is distinctly “intense”. In the sample that we are looking at, his previous 6 seasons, not a single club had a low PPDA or a high challenge intensity, which is partly a reflection of those sides’ individual identities but also the leagues they played in. Both Rangers and Scottish football in general will serve up a side of the game that he has yet to really experience, in terms of intensity of duelling and “physicality”.
In addition to different styles of play, we have seen Cornelius play in several different positions. The transfermarkt graphic below doesnt really capture this, but it does show that despite murmurs of him “playing” left-back previously, it’s not been a role that he’s ever been asked to perform consistently.
Instead, we can look to heatmaps to provide a more accurate insight into where he has played. Each of the following captures his play at his previous four clubs: Vancouver (top left), Panetolikos (top right), Malmö (bottom left), and Marseille (bottom right). Cornelius is most comfortable as a LCB and has featured in said role in both 4 and 5-atb systems. He has filled in as a CCB at times in a 5-atb, but has rarely, if ever, played as a RCB. Across clubs, despite stylistic differences, Cornelius has generally been the more adventurous and aggressive of his CB, evidenced by the fairly extended reach of his heatmap, most prominently seen at Marseille. This gives us relative confidence that he is comfortable defending in a high-line as well as parking himself at the halfway line to contribute to build-up, two requisites.
If we wrap up what we’ve seen so far, and take a final general look before we dive into the depths of specific seasons, we can plot his “ball-playing centre-back ” rating for all six seasons that satisfy the criteria. Although we’ve already established that the sides he has played in vary in their appropriateness for a “ball-playing centre-back”, the rating does a better job at capturing a holistic picture of his play and will be the sort of “role” he will be asked to play at Rangers.
Cornelius has three standout seasons, managing league-best performance in his final Malmö season, but equally appears to have struggled in the other three; however, the quality of his sides, specifically in Greece and Canada, as detailed later, makes this reasonable. Saying this, the fact that he managed such a strong 21/22 season at Panetolikos is perhaps the best piece of evidence of his quality.
The Whistle-stop Tour
Vancouver (2019 and 2020)
The first stint we will look at is Cornelius’s final two seasons in his homeland, playing for the Vancouver Whitecaps of the MLS. Despite the quality that they possess now and in recent years, in large part due to Scotsman Ryan Gauld, these Whitecaps sides were pretty poor.
Given that we cannot access historical ELO data, we can use their Expected Points haul as a good proxy for team quality. Whitecaps managed 0.97 and 1.1 xPoints per game, which is a similar return to the following teams from last season (24/25).
Oxford United
Las Palmas
Motherwell
West Ham
Below we can see the performance percentiles for the 2020 season, which are similar enough to the truncated 2019 season that we can use them to cover both seasons. This was a bad team; whatever positives they did manage were in possession and going forward, but for Cornelius, playing in this side was a tough task. The only positive aspect is that they managed a surprisingly high number of passes relative to possession, with many concentrated deeper in their shape, giving Cornelius the platform to contribute in possession. Given what was just said, the usage ratings are expected
Souttar (24/25) - 6.06
Cornelius (2020) - 6.57
Propper (24/25) - 7.09
Nsiala (24/25) - 7.25
Cornelius (2019) - 8.74
His high usage rating is well represented in his percentile bars below, which are very good for a centre-back in a side that we have already established struggled to do all that much. With our Rangers hats on, his ability in the air, albeit with low quantity, hence the lower “rating” reads well, as does his ability to carry the ball out of the back. He was a strong ground dueler and an effective passer, albeit again, with relatively low quantity. Like with earlier iterations of Miovski, we are not purchasing this version of Cornelius, but this is promising.
As discussed in other articles, all analysis benefits from comparison, both in-house and with peers from other clubs, and this is essential for CBs, as what a CB is asked to do can be as much about what they are good at as it is what their partner struggles to do. For Cornelius, Ranko Velesinovic was his most common partner across the two seasons we’re covering. Below is a radar of their respective 2020 seasons. What we can say with relative confidence is that Cornelius was the more aggressive, the more progressive and the “riskier” partner. This sounds pretty good, read against what I said about Djiga last month.
Despite this, given the possession demands bestowed on any Rangers side, not least a Martin-led side, Djiga would be best suited as the backup ball-player. In an ideal world, he is partnered with someone more confident and competent in possession than Djiga. A world where his partner is equally capable is fine; however, you are getting into uncomfortable territory should you be demanding that he spearhead a 700+ passes p90 side.
Breaking down the filter so that we can look just at Whitecaps CBs, we return to the same conclusions. Cornelius in 2020 was a strong outlier when it came to attacking duties, defending on the ground and carrying the ball, but lagged slightly behind in other categories. But he was not a negative outlier for aerial duels or ball-playing, made more impressive when we consider that most in this sample played for more dominant Whitecap sides.
To confirm, we can review his shortened 2019 season. It’s surprisingly different to the 2020 season, here he’s more of a ball-player who stands out in the air but really did nothing in the attacking third and was not readily carrying out from the back. This is obviously very interesting and likely represents a shift in role rather than anything else. Still, as we examine his subsequent stints in detail, we can determine which, if either, better represents the player who arrived in Glasgow on deadline day.
Panetolikos (2021/22 and 2022/23)
Cornelius played in both Germany and Serbia earlier in his career, but the data I have access to does not cover those seasons, so the first foreign stint we will look into is his time in Greece.
Funnily enough, across the two seasons - 2021/22 and 2022/23 - Panetolikos managed the same xPoints p90 as his two final Whitecaps seasons. Refer to the list of similar peers produced a few paragraphs ago for context.
Both Panetolikos sides managed mid-table finishes in the Greek Super League, but were pretty lucky to do so according to xPoints, and if the radar below is accurate at all, weren’t much fun either. They were a poor side, easily beaten by many, failed to control the tempo of the match in or out of possession and were not the type of side to enjoy really any control in possession. They also fouled a lot.
Given this, the state of Cornelius’s performance percentiles is mightily impressive, and despite being worse in absolute terms than what we will see in the following seasons, it is maybe his most outstanding effort in his entire career. Despite playing for a mediocre team, he was a massively influential cog in build-up, an aggressive defender, active in the air and a scoring threat. The only thing he didn’t do that you would like is carry the ball much, but when he passes so much, achieving any balance between the actions is challenging. His poor-ish ball retention is not really relevant given his adventurous passing style and the poor quality of teammates. Despite all of this, his usage rating is slightly lower than what we have seen already,
Souttar (24/25) - 6.06
Cornelius (21/22) - 6.66
Propper (24/25) - 7.09
Nsiala (24/25) - 7.25
Much like when compared to his previous partner in Vancouver, we again see that Cornelius was likely the more progressive and adventurous of the two, but not as “clearly aggressive”. For his first season in new surroundings, bettering his more embedded teammate, Alexandros Malis, is good reading.
Should you still be unconvinced of how impressive this season was, consult the graphic below. Cornelius in 2021/22 is likely the best CB Panteolikos has had in the seasons for which we have access to advanced data.
Cornelius took a slight step back in the following season, less involved in build-up, less imperious in defensive duels, but still retained his customary ability to provide a tangible attacking threat and manage himself in the air. He was still very effective when passing the ball, or at least able to progress the play and find teammates in attacking positions, but was again limited by the quantity of passes and a tendency for misplaced passes, which, as established, we don’t really care that much about. Cornelius had a higher usage rating this season, which reflects a quirk in how we capture this rating; his total involvement was likely similar, but he was slightly less consistent while doing so. Usage rating is the percentage of possession-ending actions you’re responsible for, so there is a genuine point that this slightly inflates “worse players”, given that they are more likely to give possession away
Souttar (24/25) - 6.06
Propper (24/25) - 7.09
Nsiala (24/25) - 7.25
Cornelius (22/23) - 7.44
What we see, now for a third time, is that Cornelius, even in a relative “down season”, was the more progressive and adventurous CB, as evidenced by the radar below.
Compared to the beauty of the 2021/22 replacement rating bars, the 2022/23 version below looks atrophied. Which is true, he was certainly less outstanding and more in line with the “average” for the sample size. Yet again, we have a data point that leads us to believe that, regardless of team, he is good for some goals and is strong in the air.
To compare the two seasons, we have the radar below.
The best way to frame the difference between the two seasons is along the lines of: 21/22 Cornelius would rightfully find himself on shortlists for teams in and around Rangers quality, whereas the 22/23 version is likely to interest the likes of Hearts, Hibs and Aberdeen.
Malmö FF (2023 and 2024)
We now enter the phase of Cornelius’s career in which he played for teams which are easily comparable to Rangers in terms of relative quality and their rough ideas of how they play. The parity between Malmö and Rangers is so strong that in both 2023 and 2024 the side managed basically he same xPoints p90 as Rangers did in 24/25, as well as several other dominant sides, listed below.
Rangers
Liverpool
Feyenoord
Benfica
Cornelius played under the much-loved Henrik Rydström, a face that many would welcome to the Ibrox dugout. The Swede’s football philosophy, grounded in relational principles, might actually be more famous than the man himself. Still, for the purposes of the following analysis, the key factors to consider are the excessive level of control, the number of passes, and the low blocks that opponents deployed in an attempt to counteract, all of which are evident in the radars below. This should sound familiar to all Rangers fans, and puts us in relatively good standing to suggest that what Cornelius did at Malmö should be translated to Ibrox without any “major fuss”
Cornelius’s usage rating is very similar to that of our CBs last season.
Souttar (24/25) - 6.06
Propper (24/25) - 7.09
Cornelius (2023) - 7.2
Nsiala (24/25) - 7.25
Going beyond usage rating and getting a clearer picture of his play that season, we have the percentile bars below. It looks really good.
Given the total number of passes played, his p100 output is always going to be low, so that shouldn’t be much of a concern. What we see is a player who was a significant attacking threat, was excellent in the air, a good ground dueler and was always offering an option to carry out from the back-line. He seldom gave away possession. If we can pick any hole, it would be his proclivity to foul relative to the number of duels he was engaged in.
Compared to his most common partner, the familiar face of Pontus Jansson, we again see a dynamic in which Cornelius is the more progressive ball-player and slightly more aggressive defender. At the same time, Jansson is more “no-nonsense”, providing the cover required for Cornelius to do his best work.
Isolating for the best sample, previous Malmö CBs, the takeaways are the same. He was an invaluable source of goals, thrifty in possession and above average with the ball at his feet. He was slightly below average in defensive duties, but this is likely down to the fact that the Malmö side he played in was “better” than others or at least did less defending due to their control of the ball.
Moving to his final season in Sweden, it gets better. If his 21/22 Panetolikos season was his best when adjusted to team quality, then his 2024 season was his absolute peak, appearing as a standout in a team that dominated the Allsvenskan. His usage rating dropped slightly, but still sits between Rangers’ peers
Souttar (24/25) - 6.06
Cornelius (2024) - 6.39
Propper (24/25) - 7.09
Nsiala (24/25) - 7.25
Comparing once more to Jansson, the same themes repeat, albeit areas which you used to cede to his partner were now taken up, filling out his radar basically as well as anyone could, given the style of team he played for.
It’s when sampled against his historical and contemporary club peers that the excellence of this season truly comes out. I think it’s safe to say the same thing we said about his time at Panetolikos; 2024 Cornelius is either the most impressive CB Malmö have had in the period the data covers, or is not far from it. It’s abundantly clear why an above-average top-5 league side, like Marseille, was interested in the Canadian.
Given just how strong he was in 2024, it almost makes his 2023 output, which we’ve already established was solid and, if anything, above average, seem poor. The one “concern” you may have is that should his fortunes mirror Malmö, we may not actually enjoy his peak, as he has less than 9 months to convince the hierarchy and himself that Ibrox is his next long-term destination.
Should Cornelius replicate this form, particularly what we saw in 2024, then this transfer will be an overwhelming success, oh, if it were just that simple, though.
Marseille (2024/25)
Cornelius’s performance in Sweden was rewarded with a move to Marseille, to play under another possession zealot in the form of Roberto De Zerbi. Despite being a considerable distance behind PSG in the league, they still managed a stellar xPoints total, with a similar p90 haul to the teams below.
Manchester City
Coventry City
Lazio
Bayer Leverkusen
The percentile bars below should come as no surprise to anyone slightly familiar with the Italian, with the structure and principles somewhat similar to Malmö and Rangers, albeit Marseille’s defence was far leakier. The most important thing to consider, in contrast to Malmö, is the significant jump in quality between the two leagues, as well as the increased physical profiles he is now forced to defend; no longer is he a big fish in a small pond.
Much like Miovski, but not to the same extent, a top-5 league, or at least a team styled as an above-average top-5 league side, was a step too far. Cornelius did not stand out in Marseille. He wasn’t terrible and did not shirk responsibilities in possession as evidenced by the percentiles and his usage rating, but it would be wrong to say he was anything but below-average
Souttar (24/25) - 6.06
Cornelius (24/25) - 6.61
Propper (24/25) - 7.09
Nsiala (24/25) - 7.25
This fact is made all the more obvious when we first compare him to Marseille’s 2024/25 CBs and the greater Marseille sample later.
Leandro Balerdi was the most prominent CB for De Zerbi last season and was clearly a more rounded and effective option than Cornelius. This is obviously fine; below-average Marseille CBs get linked with Rangers, while their top performers head to super-clubs - that is the way of the world. Cornelius continues to show the ability to be safe in possession, but everything else is poor to simply bad.
This fact is further emphasised by the graphic below. Cornelius is unlikely to be missed all that much by Marseille and their fans. His relative lack of defensive work is influenced by the control De Zerbi enjoys, but even within the confines of the system, the numbers are uninspiring, not really much of a concern for us, though, and not quite as bad as Miovski in this respect, in my opinion.
Putting It Together
Cornelius appears to be a sensible piece of business, with an advantageous deal structure insofar as we are not paying an exorbitant loan fee. He seems like the sort of profile that suits Martin’s principles and should partner with Djiga or Souttar well, lightening the ball-playing load that both hold. The bull case is that, like at Malmö and Panetolikos, we witness a CB who is amongst the best we’ve watched over the past decade, although this is a shamefully low bar at Rangers. At worst, he’s probably just slightly better than what we’ve got, and a useful left-footed option that provides balance to the side, aiding in building up more so than anything else.
Like with any CB who arrives in Scotland, he must pass the “2022-23 Ross County Test”, which is being able to deal with both the Simon Murray and Jordan White type of striker. Will he do so? It’s not guaranteed, but he hasnt been bullied in other leagues, and if anything, he has done a good job controlling airspace.
This article self-destructs if shortened or summarised by AI.